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Who keeps clearing the number
A projection is one number and hides its own shape. Two players can both project four receptions — one catching 4, 5, 4, 5 and the other 0, 9, 1, 8 — and for anyone reading a line that difference is the whole question. This page shows the record behind the number, over each player’s last 8 games.
Against a round number
Round thresholds a reader already thinks in, for the players a book has not priced this week. A long run here means the threshold is soft for that player — it is a statement about the number, not a forecast.
| Player | Market | Number | Games cleared | How often | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers LV · TE | receptions | 3.5+ | 8 of 8 | 100% | — |
| Christian McCaffrey SF · RB | rush attempts | 9.5+ | 8 of 8 | 100% | — |
| Christian Watson GB · WR | receptions | 2.5+ | 8 of 8 | 100% | — |
| D'Andre Swift CHI · RB | rushing yards | 39.5+ | 8 of 8 | 100% | — |
| Derrick Henry BAL · RB | rush attempts | 15.5+ | 8 of 8 | 100% | — |
| Devaughn Vele NO · WR | receptions | 2.5+ | 8 of 8 | 100% | — |
| Jaylen Warren PIT · RB | rush attempts | 9.5+ | 8 of 8 | 100% | — |
| Jaylen Warren PIT · RB | rushing yards | 39.5+ | 8 of 8 | 100% | — |
| Kenneth Walker III KC · RB | rush attempts | 15.5+ | 8 of 8 | 100% | — |
| Kyren Williams LA · RB | rush attempts | 9.5+ | 8 of 8 | 100% | — |
| Luther Burden III CHI · WR | receptions | 2.5+ | 8 of 8 | 100% | — |
| Nico Collins HOU · WR | receptions | 2.5+ | 8 of 8 | 100% | — |
| Trey McBride ARI · TE | receptions | 5.5+ | 8 of 8 | 100% | — |
| A.J. Brown NE · WR | receptions | 2.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | QUESTIONABLE |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET · WR | receiving yards | 49.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Ashton Jeanty LV · RB | receptions | 2.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Breece Hall NYJ · RB | rush attempts | 12.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | QUESTIONABLE |
| Bucky Irving TB · RB | rushing yards | 39.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Cade Otton TB · TE | receptions | 2.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Chase Brown CIN · RB | receptions | 2.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Chris Godwin Jr. TB · WR | receptions | 2.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Christian Watson GB · WR | receiving yards | 39.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Dallas Goedert PHI · TE | receptions | 2.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| D'Andre Swift CHI · RB | rush attempts | 12.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| DeVonta Smith PHI · WR | receptions | 2.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| DK Metcalf PIT · WR | receptions | 2.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Garrett Wilson NYJ · WR | receptions | 2.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Jahmyr Gibbs DET · RB | rushing yards | 39.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Javonte Williams DAL · RB | rush attempts | 9.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA · WR | receptions | 4.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| J.K. Dobbins DEN · RB | rush attempts | 9.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Juwan Johnson NO · TE | receptions | 2.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Kenneth Walker III KC · RB | rushing yards | 69.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Kyren Williams LA · RB | rushing yards | 39.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Michael Mayer LV · TE | receptions | 2.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Michael Wilson ARI · WR | receptions | 3.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Mike Evans SF · WR | receptions | 2.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | QUESTIONABLE |
| Nico Collins HOU · WR | receiving yards | 49.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Puka Nacua LA · WR | receiving yards | 69.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Quinshon Judkins CLE · RB | rush attempts | 9.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | QUESTIONABLE |
| Rome Odunze CHI · WR | receiving yards | 39.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Sam LaPorta DET · TE | receiving yards | 39.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Tee Higgins CIN · WR | receptions | 2.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Tee Higgins CIN · WR | receiving yards | 49.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Tony Pollard TEN · RB | rush attempts | 12.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Tony Pollard TEN · RB | rushing yards | 39.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Wan'Dale Robinson TEN · WR | receptions | 2.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Zay Flowers BAL · WR | receiving yards | 49.5+ | 7 of 8 | 88% | — |
| Carnell Tate TEN · WR | receptions | 2.5+ | 5 of 6 | 83% | — |
| Denzel Boston CLE · WR | receiving yards | 39.5+ | 5 of 6 | 83% | — |
| Makai Lemon PHI · WR | receptions | 2.5+ | 5 of 6 | 83% | — |
| Jeremiyah Love ARI · RB | rush attempts | 9.5+ | 4 of 5 | 80% | QUESTIONABLE |
| Aaron Jones MIN · RB | rush attempts | 15.5+ | 6 of 8 | 75% | — |
| Aaron Jones MIN · RB | rushing yards | 49.5+ | 6 of 8 | 75% | — |
| Adonai Mitchell NYJ · WR | receptions | 2.5+ | 6 of 8 | 75% | QUESTIONABLE |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown DET · WR | receptions | 5.5+ | 6 of 8 | 75% | — |
| Ashton Jeanty LV · RB | rush attempts | 12.5+ | 6 of 8 | 75% | — |
| Ashton Jeanty LV · RB | rushing yards | 39.5+ | 6 of 8 | 75% | — |
| Bijan Robinson ATL · RB | rush attempts | 15.5+ | 6 of 8 | 75% | — |
| Bijan Robinson ATL · RB | rushing yards | 69.5+ | 6 of 8 | 75% | — |
None of this is an edge. A sportsbook has seen exactly the same games. And measured across 2019–2025, a player running far above his own established level gives back 1.28 receptions the following week — so a long run is, if anything, a reason for caution. Slate Stats does not take bets and none of this is advice.