Mon Oct 19, vs WAS: Mike Evans caught 3 of 5 targets for 94 yards on 40% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Mike Evans is averaging 4.5 receptions and 70 receiving yards on 54% of snaps, against 3.8 receptions and 46 receiving yards over 8 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 11.8 PPR points, WR21 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
11.8
WR21 this week
Receptions
4.1
0.4 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
61
Anytime TD
32%
He is the third-down option, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.05 receptions.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Mike Evans snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.1 projected
26 wk6
WAS
40%
17.2%
5
3
94
0
4.0 -1.0
26 wk5
SEA
63%
37.0%
10
7
113
1
3.7 +3.3
26 wk4
DEN
59%
27.6%
8
5
76
0
3.4 +1.6
26 wk3
ARI
33%
23.1%
6
3
34
1
3.6 -0.6
26 wk2
MIA
54%
14.3%
3
3
54
0
—
26 wk1
LA
75%
20.6%
7
6
49
1
—
25 wk18
CAR
75%
9.1%
2
2
34
0
—
25 wk17
MIA
75%
15.9%
7
3
31
1
—
25 wk16
CAR
66%
36.0%
9
5
31
1
—
25 wk15
ATL
55%
37.5%
12
6
132
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 10 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
8 of 10
80%
5+ receptions
5 of 10
50%
7+ receptions
0 of 10
0%
50+ receiving yards
4 of 10
40%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 10
10%
100+ receiving yards
1 of 10
10%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 10
40%
Mike Evans 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Mike Evans has 27 catches for 420 receiving yards (4.5 catches and 70.0 yards a game), with 3 touchdowns, on 54% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2016–2025 (156 games)
Catches per game
4.5
5.0
Receiving yards per game
70.0
74.3
Target share
23.3%
23.0%
Mike Evans 2025 stats
In 2025 Mike Evans had 30 catches for 368 yards over 8 games, with 3 touchdowns, on 66% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016