Sun Oct 18, vs NYJ: A.J. Brown caught 3 of 10 targets for 27 yards on 76% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 2 games this season A.J. Brown is averaging 3.0 receptions and 26 receiving yards on 60% of snaps, against 5.1 receptions and 64 receiving yards over 16 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 11.6 PPR points, WR22 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
11.6
WR22 this week
Receptions
3.9
1.2 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
76
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
A.J. Brown snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.9 projected
26 wk6
NYJ
76%
33.3%
10
3
27
0
3.3 -0.3
26 wk1
SEA
44%
12.9%
4
3
26
0
—
25 wk19
SF
100%
20.6%
7
3
25
0
—
25 wk17
BUF
89%
31.8%
7
5
68
0
—
25 wk16
WAS
87%
41.4%
12
9
95
0
—
25 wk15
LV
72%
11.1%
2
2
41
1
—
25 wk14
LAC
97%
34.2%
13
6
100
0
—
25 wk13
CHI
96%
40.0%
12
10
132
2
—
25 wk12
DAL
94%
27.8%
10
8
110
1
—
25 wk11
DET
93%
40.7%
11
7
49
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
13 of 17
76%
5+ receptions
10 of 17
59%
7+ receptions
4 of 17
24%
50+ receiving yards
8 of 17
47%
75+ receiving yards
7 of 17
41%
100+ receiving yards
5 of 17
29%
Scored a touchdown
5 of 17
29%
A.J. Brown 2026 stats
Through 2 games of 2026, A.J. Brown has 6 catches for 53 receiving yards (3.0 catches and 26.5 yards a game), on 60% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (2 games)
2019–2025 (118 games)
Catches per game
3.0
4.8
Receiving yards per game
26.5
73.3
Target share
23.1%
27.6%
A.J. Brown 2025 stats
In 2025 A.J. Brown had 81 catches for 1,028 yards over 16 games, with 7 touchdowns, on 91% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016