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New England Patriots
This is a committee. A.J. Brown holds 23.1% of the targets, and the 14 tracked pass-catchers project for 20 receptions and 253 receiving yards in week 7.
What this staff chooses
The New England Patriots run more than the situation calls for: pass rate over expectation -4.4%, 25th of 32, on 58 plays a game (21st). Raw pass rate is 49.8%, but that follows the scoreboard — a trailing team throws. PROE subtracts the league rate for the same down, distance and score, so what is left is the CHOICE.
Pass rate over expectation is the most repeatable offensive trait we measure: split the season into odd and even weeks and a team agrees with itself at 0.84. Most things a defense does sit near 0.32.
| This season | League rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expectation | -4.4% | 25th |
| Plays per game | 57.7 | 21st |
| Points per game | 22.7 | 18th |
The line, and the front it faces
The offensive line has allowed pressure on 26.9% of dropbacks (26th) and opened 2.74 yards before contact a carry (9th). The defense pressures the quarterback on 24.8% of opposing dropbacks (19th).
| This season | League rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Pressure allowed, per dropback | 26.9% | 26th |
| Yards before contact, per carry | 2.74 | 9th |
| Pressure generated, per dropback | 24.8% | 19th |
What this defense concedes
Of the passes thrown at the New England Patriots, 59% go to receivers, 22% to tight ends and 18% to backs. Opponents average 7.56 yards a target (19th).
Read this half with more caution than the half above. How a defense DISTRIBUTES the targets it faces repeats moderately — 0.34 for backs, 0.23 for receivers, 0.09 for tight ends. How many YARDS it allows a tight end per target repeats at 0.02, which is indistinguishable from chance. "Weak against tight ends" is the least reproducible claim in this dataset and one of the most repeated.
Season by season
This staff is running more than it has: pass rate over expectation -4.4% this season against +0.1% across the previous 10 seasons.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Brown WR1 | 60% | 23.1% | 3.9 | 76 | who benefits |
| Mack Hollins WR2 | 64% | 16.7% | 0.0 | — | who benefits |
| DeMario Douglas WR3 | 54% | 16.7% | 3.0 | 40 | — |
| Romeo Doubs WR depth | 58% | 13.3% | 0.0 | — | — |
| Efton Chism III WR depth | 45% | 9.0% | 2.3 | 25 | — |
| Kyle Williams WR depth | 28% | 6.3% | 1.6 | 24 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Henry TE1 | 74% | 13.9% | 3.1 | 36 | who benefits |
| Eli Raridon TE2 | 49% | 7.9% | 2.0 | 24 | who benefits |
| Cameron Latu TE depth | 15% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 1 | — |
| Tanner Arkin TE3 | 22% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 2 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson RB1 | 62% | 10.4% | 2.2 | 17 | who benefits |
| TreVeyon Henderson RB2 | 35% | 3.1% | 0.9 | 8 | who benefits |
| Reggie Gilliam RB depth | 22% | 2.4% | 0.0 | — | — |
| Corey Kiner RB3 | 12% | 1.1% | 0.6 | 1 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 26 carries and 112 rushing yards, with Rhamondre Stevenson taking 46% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhamondre Stevenson RB | 11.9 | 46 | 3.83 | 33% |
| TreVeyon Henderson RB | 8.5 | 36 | 4.22 | 15% |
| Corey Kiner RB | 5.5 | 31 | 5.57 | 13% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.