Sun Oct 18, vs NYJ: Hunter Henry caught 4 of 5 targets for 48 yards, 1 touchdown on 76% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Hunter Henry is averaging 3.2 receptions and 38 receiving yards on 74% of snaps, against 3.3 receptions and 42 receiving yards over 21 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 8.5 PPR points, TE18 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
8.5
TE18 this week
Receptions
3.1
0.2 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
36
Anytime TD
24%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Hunter Henry snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.1 projected
26 wk6
NYJ
76%
16.7%
5
4
48
1
3.0 +1.0
26 wk5
LV
64%
12.9%
4
3
44
1
3.1 -0.1
26 wk4
BUF
64%
13.9%
5
5
62
0
3.2 +1.8
26 wk3
JAX
70%
6.7%
2
1
5
0
3.7 -2.7
26 wk2
PIT
91%
23.8%
5
3
40
0
—
26 wk1
SEA
76%
9.7%
3
3
26
0
—
25 wk22
SEA
72%
12.2%
5
3
31
0
—
25 wk21
DEN
69%
15.0%
3
2
12
0
—
25 wk20
HOU
72%
7.7%
2
1
5
0
—
25 wk19
LAC
88%
18.5%
5
3
64
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 23 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
15 of 23
65%
5+ receptions
4 of 23
17%
7+ receptions
2 of 23
9%
50+ receiving yards
7 of 23
30%
75+ receiving yards
2 of 23
9%
100+ receiving yards
1 of 23
4%
Scored a touchdown
7 of 23
30%
Hunter Henry 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Hunter Henry has 19 catches for 225 receiving yards (3.2 catches and 37.5 yards a game), with 2 touchdowns, on 74% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2016–2025 (142 games)
Catches per game
3.2
3.3
Receiving yards per game
37.5
38.3
Target share
13.9%
14.9%
Hunter Henry 2025 stats
In 2025 Hunter Henry had 69 catches for 880 yards over 21 games, with 8 touchdowns, on 79% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016