Sun Oct 18, vs LAC: Travis Kelce caught 4 of 5 targets for 53 yards on 66% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Travis Kelce is averaging 4.0 receptions and 60 receiving yards on 77% of snaps, against 4.5 receptions and 50 receiving yards over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 9.0 PPR points, TE15 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
9.0
TE15 this week
Receptions
3.8
0.7 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
42
Anytime TD
26%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Travis Kelce snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.8 projected
26 wk6
LAC
66%
17.2%
5
4
53
0
3.9 +0.1
26 wk4
LV
83%
14.8%
4
2
15
0
4.5 -2.5
26 wk3
MIA
79%
8.7%
2
2
59
1
4.3 -2.3
26 wk2
IND
85%
25.6%
11
9
101
1
—
26 wk1
DEN
71%
20.0%
5
3
71
0
—
25 wk18
LV
80%
20.0%
6
3
12
0
—
25 wk17
DEN
98%
30.0%
6
5
36
0
—
25 wk16
TEN
78%
18.2%
4
1
6
0
—
25 wk15
LAC
98%
30.0%
9
7
70
0
—
25 wk14
HOU
91%
17.2%
5
1
8
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
16 of 19
84%
5+ receptions
9 of 19
47%
7+ receptions
4 of 19
21%
50+ receiving yards
10 of 19
53%
75+ receiving yards
4 of 19
21%
100+ receiving yards
1 of 19
5%
Scored a touchdown
6 of 19
32%
Travis Kelce 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Travis Kelce has 20 catches for 299 receiving yards (4.0 catches and 59.8 yards a game), with 2 touchdowns, on 77% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2016–2025 (182 games)
Catches per game
4.0
6.1
Receiving yards per game
59.8
72.5
Target share
17.3%
23.8%
Travis Kelce 2025 stats
In 2025 Travis Kelce had 76 catches for 851 yards over 17 games, with 5 touchdowns, on 82% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016