Sun Oct 18, vs CHI: Kyle Pitts caught 5 of 7 targets for 60 yards, 2 touchdowns on 78% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Kyle Pitts is averaging 2.5 receptions and 28 receiving yards on 59% of snaps, against 5.2 receptions and 55 receiving yards over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 8.8 PPR points, TE16 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
8.8
TE16 this week
Receptions
3.1
2.0 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
38
Anytime TD
31%
He is used near the goal line, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.07 receptions.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Kyle Pitts snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.1 projected
26 wk6
CHI
78%
21.2%
7
5
60
2
2.3 +2.7
26 wk5
BAL
67%
17.6%
6
5
42
1
2.5 +2.5
26 wk4
NO
51%
15.0%
3
3
47
0
2.2 +0.8
26 wk3
GB
59%
8.7%
2
1
5
0
2.5 -1.5
26 wk2
CAR
38%
9.7%
3
1
15
0
—
26 wk1
PIT
63%
5.3%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
NO
92%
30.0%
9
6
58
0
—
25 wk17
LA
92%
15.0%
3
2
16
0
—
25 wk16
ARI
87%
26.5%
9
7
57
1
—
25 wk15
TB
96%
29.3%
12
11
166
3
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
13 of 19
68%
5+ receptions
9 of 19
47%
7+ receptions
6 of 19
32%
50+ receiving yards
9 of 19
47%
75+ receiving yards
3 of 19
16%
100+ receiving yards
1 of 19
5%
Scored a touchdown
3 of 19
16%
Kyle Pitts 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Kyle Pitts has 15 catches for 169 receiving yards (2.5 catches and 28.2 yards a game), with 3 touchdowns, on 59% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2021–2025 (78 games)
Catches per game
2.5
3.6
Receiving yards per game
28.2
45.9
Target share
12.9%
19.9%
Kyle Pitts 2025 stats
In 2025 Kyle Pitts had 88 catches for 928 yards over 17 games, with 5 touchdowns, on 88% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016