Sun Oct 18, vs BUF: Michael Mayer caught 7 of 9 targets for 95 yards on 79% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Michael Mayer is averaging 4.7 receptions and 44 receiving yards on 81% of snaps, against 2.7 receptions and 25 receiving yards over 13 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 9.0 PPR points, TE14 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
9.0
TE14 this week
Receptions
3.6
0.9 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
34
Anytime TD
24%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Michael Mayer snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.6 projected
26 wk6
BUF
79%
23.1%
9
7
95
0
3.5 +3.5
26 wk5
NE
65%
2.8%
1
1
2
0
4.0 -3.0
26 wk4
KC
88%
20.8%
10
8
82
0
3.7 +4.3
26 wk3
NO
87%
10.0%
3
3
32
1
3.6 -0.6
26 wk2
LAC
84%
13.8%
4
3
23
0
—
26 wk1
MIA
81%
24.1%
7
6
32
0
—
25 wk18
KC
95%
19.2%
5
3
47
0
—
25 wk17
NYG
93%
35.7%
10
9
89
0
—
25 wk16
HOU
67%
13.6%
3
1
10
0
—
25 wk15
PHI
19%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
9 of 15
60%
5+ receptions
3 of 15
20%
7+ receptions
1 of 15
7%
50+ receiving yards
2 of 15
13%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 15
7%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 15
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 15
7%
Michael Mayer 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Michael Mayer has 28 catches for 266 receiving yards (4.7 catches and 44.3 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 81% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2023–2025 (38 games)
Catches per game
4.7
2.2
Receiving yards per game
44.3
20.7
Target share
15.8%
10.5%
Michael Mayer 2025 stats
In 2025 Michael Mayer had 35 catches for 328 yards over 13 games, with 1 touchdown, on 62% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016