Slate Stats › NFL › Teams
Las Vegas Raiders
This is a committee. Brock Bowers holds 29.3% of the targets, and the 14 tracked pass-catchers project for 24 receptions and 244 receiving yards in week 7.
What this staff chooses
The Las Vegas Raiders call it close to neutral: pass rate over expectation +0.7%, 14th of 32, on 59 plays a game (17th). Raw pass rate is 59.8%, but that follows the scoreboard — a trailing team throws. PROE subtracts the league rate for the same down, distance and score, so what is left is the CHOICE.
Pass rate over expectation is the most repeatable offensive trait we measure: split the season into odd and even weeks and a team agrees with itself at 0.84. Most things a defense does sit near 0.32.
| This season | League rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expectation | +0.7% | 14th |
| Plays per game | 59.2 | 17th |
| Points per game | 27.0 | 6th |
The line, and the front it faces
The offensive line has allowed pressure on 24.5% of dropbacks (23rd) and opened 1.40 yards before contact a carry (32nd). The defense pressures the quarterback on 34.9% of opposing dropbacks (2nd).
| This season | League rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Pressure allowed, per dropback | 24.5% | 23rd |
| Yards before contact, per carry | 1.40 | 32nd |
| Pressure generated, per dropback | 34.9% | 2nd |
What this defense concedes
Of the passes thrown at the Las Vegas Raiders, 58% go to receivers, 26% to tight ends and 15% to backs. Opponents average 8.30 yards a target (31st).
Read this half with more caution than the half above. How a defense DISTRIBUTES the targets it faces repeats moderately — 0.34 for backs, 0.23 for receivers, 0.09 for tight ends. How many YARDS it allows a tight end per target repeats at 0.02, which is indistinguishable from chance. "Weak against tight ends" is the least reproducible claim in this dataset and one of the most repeated.
Season by season
This staff is calling it much as it has: pass rate over expectation +0.7% this season against +0.5% across the previous 10 seasons.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Tucker WR1 | 66% | 16.6% | 3.9 | 40 | who benefits |
| Jalen Nailor WR3 | 53% | 9.6% | 1.2 | 24 | — |
| Jack Bech WR depth | 37% | 6.9% | 0.0 | — | — |
| Malik Benson WR depth | 13% | 4.1% | 0.6 | 12 | — |
| Cody White WR2 | 32% | 3.7% | 1.3 | 13 | who benefits |
| Deven Thompkins WR depth | 22% | 2.8% | 0.4 | 8 | — |
| Dareke Young WR depth | 15% | 1.3% | 0.4 | 5 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Bowers TE1 | 82% | 29.3% | 5.9 | 63 | who benefits |
| Michael Mayer TE2 | 81% | 15.8% | 3.6 | 34 | who benefits |
| Ian Thomas TE3 | 34% | 1.7% | 1.0 | 9 | — |
| Chris Myarick TE depth | 6% | 0.0% | 0.5 | — | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty RB1 | 70% | 17.3% | 3.6 | 31 | who benefits |
| Mike Washington Jr. RB2 | 20% | 2.2% | 0.7 | 4 | — |
| Dylan Laube RB3 | 15% | 1.8% | 0.6 | 2 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 21 carries and 80 rushing yards, with Ashton Jeanty taking 72% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashton Jeanty RB | 15.4 | 50 | 3.24 | 45% |
| Mike Washington Jr. RB | 5.9 | 30 | 5.07 | 14% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.