Jalen Nailor

Las Vegas Raiders · Wide receiverWR3

6′0″, 190 lb · age 27 · Michigan State · 2022 draft, round 6

Week 6 stats

Sun Oct 18, vs BUF: Jalen Nailor caught 1 of 4 targets for 9 yards on 64% of snaps.

Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.

Through 5 games this season Jalen Nailor is averaging 1.2 receptions and 12 receiving yards on 53% of snaps, against 1.7 receptions and 26 receiving yards over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 4.4 PPR points, WR82 this week.

Week 7 projection

PPR points

4.4

WR82 this week

Receptions

1.2

0.5 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

He is the third-down option, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.05 receptions.

Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

Jalen Nailor snap share, game by game

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.2 projected
26 wk6	BUF	64%	10.3%	4	1	9	0	0	0	0.8 +0.2
26 wk4	KC	23%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	1.7 -1.7
26 wk3	NO	57%	10.0%	3	1	16	0	0	0	2.4 -1.4
26 wk2	LAC	60%	10.3%	3	1	9	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	MIA	60%	17.2%	5	3	27	0	0	0	—
25 wk18	GB	75%	10.0%	3	3	49	0	0	0	—
25 wk17	DET	43%	7.1%	1	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk16	NYG	62%	8.7%	2	0	0	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	DAL	51%	20.8%	5	3	47	1	-2	2	—
25 wk14	WAS	58%	13.0%	3	3	30	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	8 of 19	42%
5+ receptions	1 of 19	5%
7+ receptions	0 of 19	0%
50+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 19	5%
Scored a touchdown	3 of 19	16%

Jalen Nailor 2026 stats

Through 5 games of 2026, Jalen Nailor has 6 catches for 61 receiving yards (1.2 catches and 12.2 yards a game), on 53% of snaps.

Against the rest of his career

	2026 so far (5 games)	2022–2025 (50 games)
Catches per game	1.2	1.4
Receiving yards per game	12.2	22.0
Target share	9.6%	8.2%

Jalen Nailor 2025 stats

In 2025 Jalen Nailor had 29 catches for 444 yards over 17 games, with 4 touchdowns, on 65% of snaps.

Season by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.

Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.

The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.

5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Las Vegas Raiders roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

Related players

The rest of the Las Vegas Raiders receiver room, by target share.

Tre Tucker WR1
Jack Bech WR depth
Malik Benson WR depth
Cody White WR2
Deven Thompkins WR depth

Ranked next to him at WR for week 7.

Savion Williams WR79 · GB
Chris Bell WR80 · MIA
Cody White WR81 · LV
Tim Patrick WR83 · NYJ
Devontez Walker WR84 · BAL
Brycen Tremayne WR85 · CAR

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worse Do defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 7