Sun Oct 11, at NE: Deven Thompkins caught 1 of 1 target for 8 yards on 22% of snaps.
Stats through week 5; the week 6 projection below. Checked Oct 13, 2026. Full game log.
Through 1 game this season Deven Thompkins is averaging 1.0 receptions and 8 receiving yards on 22% of snaps, against 0.4 receptions and 4 receiving yards over 7 games last season. For week 6 the model projects 1.6 PPR points, WR132 this week.
Week 6 projection
PPR points
1.6
WR132 this week
Receptions
0.8
0.3 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
9
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Deven Thompkins snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk6
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.8 projected
26 wk5
NE
22%
2.8%
1
1
8
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
NO
8%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
LA
—
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
ARI
3%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
TB
—
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
SEA
9%
3.6%
1
1
4
0
0
0
—
25 wk13
NYJ
13%
6.5%
2
2
23
1
5
0
—
25 wk6
BUF
—
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 7 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 7
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 7
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 7
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 7
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 7
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 7
0%
Scored a touchdown
0 of 7
0%
Deven Thompkins 2026 stats
Through 1 game of 2026, Deven Thompkins has 1 catches for 8 receiving yards (1.0 catches and 8.0 yards a game), on 22% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (1 game)
2022–2025 (39 games)
Catches per game
1.0
0.8
Receiving yards per game
8.0
4.3
Target share
2.8%
3.5%
Deven Thompkins 2025 stats
In 2025 Deven Thompkins had 3 catches for 27 yards over 7 games, on 8% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016