Sun Oct 11, vs CIN: Ryan Miller played 24% of snaps without a touch.
Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 4 games this season Ryan Miller is averaging 0.8 receptions and 23 receiving yards on 17% of snaps, against 0.2 receptions and 3 receiving yards over 13 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 1.3 PPR points, WR141 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
1.3
WR141 this week
Receptions
0.5
0.3 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
5
Anytime TD
6%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Ryan Miller snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.5 projected
26 wk5
CIN
24%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0.7 -0.7
26 wk4
MIN
10%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0.9 -0.9
26 wk3
KC
22%
8.6%
3
2
15
0
0.5 +1.5
26 wk2
SF
12%
4.3%
1
1
77
1
—
25 wk14
NO
—
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk13
ARI
2%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk12
LA
7%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk11
BUF
10%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk10
NE
12%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk8
NO
34%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 14 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 14
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 14
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 14
0%
50+ receiving yards
1 of 14
7%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 14
7%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 14
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 14
14%
Ryan Miller 2026 stats
Through 4 games of 2026, Ryan Miller has 3 catches for 92 receiving yards (0.8 catches and 23.0 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 17% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (4 games)
2023–2025 (26 games)
Catches per game
0.8
0.5
Receiving yards per game
23.0
6.2
Target share
3.2%
2.7%
Ryan Miller 2025 stats
In 2025 Ryan Miller had 2 catches for 34 yards over 13 games, with 1 touchdown, on 16% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016