Sun Oct 11, vs MIN: Cedric Tillman played 2% of snaps without a touch.
Stats through week 5; the week 6 projection below. Checked Oct 13, 2026. Full game log.
Through 1 game this season Cedric Tillman is averaging 0.0 receptions and 0 receiving yards on 2% of snaps, against 1.6 receptions and 21 receiving yards over 13 games last season. For week 6 the model projects 0.8 PPR points, WR151 this week.
Week 6 projection
PPR points
0.8
WR151 this week
Receptions
0.5
1.2 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
3
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Cedric Tillman snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk6
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.5 projected
26 wk5
MIN
2%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
CIN
77%
9.5%
2
1
23
0
—
25 wk17
PIT
58%
4.3%
1
1
42
0
—
25 wk16
BUF
47%
3.7%
1
1
8
0
—
25 wk15
CHI
12%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
TEN
64%
7.9%
3
1
23
0
—
25 wk13
SF
63%
4.3%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk12
LV
53%
16.7%
3
1
5
0
—
25 wk11
BAL
78%
16.0%
4
3
52
0
—
25 wk10
NYJ
73%
12.5%
4
2
11
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 13 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
3 of 13
23%
5+ receptions
1 of 13
8%
7+ receptions
0 of 13
0%
50+ receiving yards
2 of 13
15%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 13
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 13
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 13
15%
Cedric Tillman 2026 stats
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (1 game)
2023–2025 (38 games)
Catches per game
0.0
1.9
Receiving yards per game
0.0
21.9
Target share
0.0%
9.7%
Cedric Tillman 2025 stats
In 2025 Cedric Tillman had 21 catches for 270 yards over 13 games, with 2 touchdowns, on 62% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016