6′0″, 187 lb · age 26 · Ohio State · 2022 draft, round 1
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, at NYG: Chris Olave caught 4 of 7 targets for 43 yards, 1 touchdown on 58% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Chris Olave is averaging 7.2 receptions and 97 receiving yards on 82% of snaps, against 6.2 receptions and 73 receiving yards over 16 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 14.3 PPR points, WR11 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
14.3
WR11 this week
Receptions
5.8
0.4 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
71
Anytime TD
32%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 9 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Chris Olave snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
5.8 projected
26 wk6
NYG
58%
23.3%
7
4
43
1
6.3 -2.3
26 wk5
MIN
91%
25.0%
6
4
46
0
6.9 -2.9
26 wk4
ATL
86%
25.5%
12
8
116
0
6.8 +1.2
26 wk3
LV
84%
32.5%
13
9
107
0
6.5 +2.5
26 wk2
BAL
84%
31.2%
10
8
86
1
—
26 wk1
DET
86%
25.0%
13
10
182
0
—
25 wk17
TEN
91%
40.7%
11
8
119
1
—
25 wk16
NYJ
78%
34.0%
16
10
148
2
—
25 wk15
CAR
84%
29.0%
9
6
85
1
—
25 wk14
TB
93%
25.0%
5
3
30
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
18 of 18
100%
5+ receptions
14 of 18
78%
7+ receptions
9 of 18
50%
50+ receiving yards
15 of 18
83%
75+ receiving yards
8 of 18
44%
100+ receiving yards
4 of 18
22%
Scored a touchdown
8 of 18
44%
Chris Olave 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Chris Olave has 43 catches for 580 receiving yards (7.2 catches and 96.7 yards a game), with 2 touchdowns, on 82% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2022–2025 (55 games)
Catches per game
7.2
5.3
Receiving yards per game
96.7
67.8
Target share
27.1%
25.7%
Chris Olave 2025 stats
In 2025 Chris Olave had 100 catches for 1,163 yards over 16 games, with 9 touchdowns, on 84% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016