Sun Oct 18, vs CAR: DeVonta Smith caught 7 of 14 targets for 75 yards, 1 touchdown on 66% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 4 games this season DeVonta Smith is averaging 6.5 receptions and 78 receiving yards on 87% of snaps, against 4.7 receptions and 60 receiving yards over 18 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 15.0 PPR points, WR9 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
15.0
WR9 this week
Receptions
4.9
0.1 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
70
Anytime TD
38%
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.
His snap share is down, but he is on the injury report, so the drop is not read as a smaller role.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
DeVonta Smith snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.9 projected
26 wk6
CAR
66%
31.8%
14
7
75
1
4.6 +2.4
26 wk3
CHI
100%
32.0%
8
6
65
0
5.2 +0.8
26 wk2
TEN
88%
38.2%
13
10
117
1
—
26 wk1
WAS
95%
27.3%
6
3
53
0
—
25 wk19
SF
92%
32.4%
11
8
70
0
—
25 wk18
WAS
14%
11.8%
4
3
52
0
—
25 wk17
BUF
85%
22.7%
5
2
25
0
—
25 wk16
WAS
86%
27.6%
8
6
42
1
—
25 wk15
LV
52%
11.1%
2
2
50
0
—
25 wk14
LAC
97%
21.1%
8
4
37
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
16 of 20
80%
5+ receptions
9 of 20
45%
7+ receptions
5 of 20
25%
50+ receiving yards
12 of 20
60%
75+ receiving yards
5 of 20
25%
100+ receiving yards
3 of 20
15%
Scored a touchdown
5 of 20
25%
DeVonta Smith 2026 stats
Through 4 games of 2026, DeVonta Smith has 26 catches for 310 receiving yards (6.5 catches and 77.5 yards a game), with 2 touchdowns, on 87% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (4 games)
2021–2025 (90 games)
Catches per game
6.5
4.8
Receiving yards per game
77.5
63.2
Target share
32.3%
25.0%
DeVonta Smith 2025 stats
In 2025 DeVonta Smith had 85 catches for 1,078 yards over 18 games, with 4 touchdowns, on 85% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016