Sun Oct 11, at MIA: Ja'Marr Chase caught 6 of 10 targets for 77 yards, 1 touchdown on 89% of snaps.
Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Ja'Marr Chase is averaging 5.4 receptions and 58 receiving yards on 78% of snaps, against 7.8 receptions and 88 receiving yards over 16 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 15.5 PPR points, WR7 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
15.5
WR7 this week
Receptions
6.3
1.5 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
74
Anytime TD
46%
He is used near the goal line, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.07 receptions.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 3 and 10 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Ja'Marr Chase snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
6.3 projected
26 wk5
MIA
89%
32.3%
10
6
77
0
0
1
5.3 +0.7
26 wk4
JAX
20%
5.7%
3
3
27
0
0
0
6.6 -3.6
26 wk3
PIT
100%
32.4%
12
9
98
0
0
1
6.2 +2.8
26 wk2
HOU
88%
29.0%
9
7
75
0
0
2
—
26 wk1
TB
94%
11.8%
4
2
12
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
CLE
100%
26.3%
10
8
96
0
0
1
—
25 wk17
ARI
77%
27.3%
9
7
60
0
0
2
—
25 wk16
MIA
87%
35.5%
11
9
109
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
BAL
97%
44.4%
16
10
132
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
BUF
100%
22.2%
8
5
44
1
8
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
16 of 18
89%
5+ receptions
15 of 18
83%
7+ receptions
10 of 18
56%
50+ receiving yards
13 of 18
72%
75+ receiving yards
11 of 18
61%
100+ receiving yards
7 of 18
39%
Scored a touchdown
7 of 18
39%
Ja'Marr Chase 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Ja'Marr Chase has 27 catches for 289 receiving yards (5.4 catches and 57.8 yards a game), with 4 touchdowns, on 78% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2021–2025 (85 games)
Catches per game
5.4
6.6
Receiving yards per game
57.8
87.4
Target share
22.2%
27.4%
Ja'Marr Chase 2025 stats
In 2025 Ja'Marr Chase had 125 catches for 1,412 yards over 16 games, with 8 touchdowns, on 94% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016