6′1″, 205 lb · age 27 · Penn State; Western Kentucky
Week 4 stats
Sun Oct 4, vs JAX: Mitchell Tinsley caught 3 of 7 targets for 49 yards on 53% of snaps.
Stats through week 4; the week 5 projection below. Checked Oct 8, 2026. Full game log.
Through 1 game this season Mitchell Tinsley is averaging 3.0 receptions and 49 receiving yards on 53% of snaps, against 0.5 receptions and 7 receiving yards over 17 games last season. For week 5 the model projects 5.0 PPR points, WR83 this week.
Week 5 projection
PPR points
5.0
WR83 this week
Receptions
1.9
1.4 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
33
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Mitchell Tinsley snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk5
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.9 projected
26 wk4
JAX
53%
13.2%
7
3
49
0
—
25 wk18
CLE
12%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
ARI
29%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
MIA
36%
3.2%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
BAL
45%
5.6%
2
1
16
0
—
25 wk14
BUF
15%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk13
BAL
67%
20.5%
9
2
22
0
—
25 wk12
NE
74%
17.6%
6
2
29
1
—
25 wk11
PIT
11%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk9
CHI
25%
4.4%
2
1
27
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 17
12%
Mitchell Tinsley 2026 stats
Through 1 game of 2026, Mitchell Tinsley has 3 catches for 49 receiving yards (3.0 catches and 49.0 yards a game), on 53% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (1 game)
2023–2025 (18 games)
Catches per game
3.0
0.4
Receiving yards per game
49.0
6.4
Target share
13.2%
3.7%
Mitchell Tinsley 2025 stats
In 2025 Mitchell Tinsley had 8 catches for 116 yards over 17 games, with 2 touchdowns, on 25% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
3 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016