Sun Oct 11, at MIA: Tee Higgins caught 2 of 4 targets for 22 yards on 69% of snaps.
Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Tee Higgins is averaging 5.4 receptions and 85 receiving yards on 77% of snaps, against 3.9 receptions and 56 receiving yards over 15 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 11.5 PPR points, WR24 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
11.5
WR24 this week
Receptions
4.4
0.4 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
60
Anytime TD
30%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Tee Higgins snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.4 projected
26 wk5
MIA
69%
12.9%
4
2
22
0
4.7 -2.7
26 wk4
JAX
79%
30.2%
16
11
157
0
4.3 +6.7
26 wk3
PIT
93%
18.9%
7
6
90
1
3.8 +2.2
26 wk2
HOU
72%
32.3%
10
5
95
0
—
26 wk1
TB
72%
17.6%
6
3
59
0
—
25 wk18
CLE
87%
23.7%
9
6
67
1
—
25 wk17
ARI
57%
15.2%
5
4
59
0
—
25 wk16
MIA
62%
9.7%
3
3
53
1
—
25 wk14
BUF
73%
30.6%
11
6
92
2
—
25 wk12
NE
77%
17.6%
6
5
31
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
15 of 17
88%
5+ receptions
7 of 17
41%
7+ receptions
1 of 17
6%
50+ receiving yards
11 of 17
65%
75+ receiving yards
4 of 17
24%
100+ receiving yards
1 of 17
6%
Scored a touchdown
9 of 17
53%
Tee Higgins 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Tee Higgins has 27 catches for 423 receiving yards (5.4 catches and 84.6 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 77% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2020–2025 (92 games)
Catches per game
5.4
4.6
Receiving yards per game
84.6
64.1
Target share
22.4%
20.7%
Tee Higgins 2025 stats
In 2025 Tee Higgins had 59 catches for 846 yards over 15 games, with 11 touchdowns, on 81% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016