Sun Oct 18, at ATL: Luther Burden III caught 8 of 8 targets for 95 yards on 39% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Luther Burden III is averaging 5.2 receptions and 60 receiving yards on 60% of snaps, against 3.1 receptions and 42 receiving yards over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 11.3 PPR points, WR25 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
11.3
WR25 this week
Receptions
4.5
1.4 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
50
Anytime TD
31%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Luther Burden III snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.5 projected
26 wk6
ATL
39%
24.2%
8
8
95
0
0
0
4.2 +3.8
26 wk5
GB
77%
15.0%
6
4
47
4
2
0
3.9 +0.1
26 wk4
NYJ
56%
19.4%
6
4
63
1
11
0
4.0 +0.0
26 wk3
PHI
61%
32.4%
11
7
61
1
7
1
3.7 +3.3
26 wk2
MIN
57%
23.3%
7
3
32
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
CAR
73%
19.2%
5
5
63
1
2
0
—
25 wk20
LA
53%
16.7%
7
3
24
1
0
0
—
25 wk19
GB
63%
15.2%
7
3
42
1
-4
0
—
25 wk18
DET
62%
13.8%
4
3
35
1
10
0
—
25 wk17
SF
58%
23.1%
9
8
138
0
0
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
14 of 19
74%
5+ receptions
3 of 19
16%
7+ receptions
1 of 19
5%
50+ receiving yards
7 of 19
37%
75+ receiving yards
3 of 19
16%
100+ receiving yards
2 of 19
11%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 19
11%
Luther Burden III 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Luther Burden III has 31 catches for 361 receiving yards (5.2 catches and 60.2 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 60% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2025–2025 (17 games)
Catches per game
5.2
3.1
Receiving yards per game
60.2
42.2
Target share
22.3%
13.4%
Luther Burden III 2025 stats
In 2025 Luther Burden III had 53 catches for 718 yards over 17 games, with 2 touchdowns, on 42% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016