Sun Oct 11, at NO: Justin Jefferson caught 6 of 7 targets for 79 yards, 1 touchdown on 89% of snaps.
Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 4 games this season Justin Jefferson is averaging 4.8 receptions and 64 receiving yards on 73% of snaps, against 4.9 receptions and 62 receiving yards over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 11.5 PPR points, WR23 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
11.5
WR23 this week
Receptions
4.2
0.8 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
58
Anytime TD
22%
He is used near the goal line, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.07 receptions.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Justin Jefferson snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.2 projected
26 wk5
NO
89%
24.1%
7
6
79
1
-11
1
3.8 +2.2
26 wk3
TB
12%
8.0%
2
2
32
0
0
0
5.0 -3.0
26 wk2
CHI
100%
31.6%
6
3
55
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
GB
92%
39.1%
9
8
92
0
0
2
—
25 wk18
GB
76%
36.7%
11
8
101
1
3
0
—
25 wk17
DET
98%
35.7%
5
4
30
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
NYG
95%
34.8%
8
6
85
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
DAL
96%
33.3%
8
2
22
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
WAS
80%
17.4%
4
2
11
0
0
0
—
25 wk13
SEA
96%
20.7%
6
2
4
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
16 of 19
84%
5+ receptions
10 of 19
53%
7+ receptions
5 of 19
26%
50+ receiving yards
11 of 19
58%
75+ receiving yards
8 of 19
42%
100+ receiving yards
3 of 19
16%
Scored a touchdown
3 of 19
16%
Justin Jefferson 2026 stats
Through 4 games of 2026, Justin Jefferson has 19 catches for 258 receiving yards (4.8 catches and 64.5 yards a game), with 3 touchdowns, on 73% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (4 games)
2020–2025 (96 games)
Catches per game
4.8
6.2
Receiving yards per game
64.5
89.4
Target share
25.7%
28.6%
Justin Jefferson 2025 stats
In 2025 Justin Jefferson had 84 catches for 1,048 yards over 17 games, with 2 touchdowns, on 94% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016