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Tai Felton

Minnesota Vikings · Wide receiverWR3

6′1″, 186 lb · age 23 · Maryland · 2025 draft, round 3

Week 5 stats

Sun Oct 11, at NO: Tai Felton caught 2 of 3 targets for 27 yards on 66% of snaps.

Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.

Through 4 games this season Tai Felton is averaging 0.8 receptions and 10 receiving yards on 46% of snaps, against 0.2 receptions and 2 receiving yards over 14 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 3.5 PPR points, WR96 this week.

Week 7 projection

PPR points
3.5
WR96 this week
Receptions
1.1
0.8 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
17
Anytime TD
12%
He is used near the goal line, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.07 receptions.
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.

What a realistic week looks like

42%030%116%27%345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

Tai Felton snap share, game by game

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk7———————1.1 projected
26 wk5NO66%10.3%322700.9 +1.1
26 wk4MIA59%3.0%111401.0 +0.0
26 wk3TB54%8.0%20000.1 -0.1
26 wk1GB5%0.0%0000—
25 wk18GB13%0.0%0000—
25 wk16NYG11%4.3%1160—
25 wk15DAL2%0.0%0000—
25 wk14WAS17%4.3%11100—
25 wk13SEA—0.0%0000—
25 wk12GB—0.0%0000—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions0 of 150%
5+ receptions0 of 150%
7+ receptions0 of 150%
50+ receiving yards0 of 150%
75+ receiving yards0 of 150%
100+ receiving yards0 of 150%
Scored a touchdown0 of 150%

Tai Felton 2026 stats

Through 4 games of 2026, Tai Felton has 3 catches for 41 receiving yards (0.8 catches and 10.2 yards a game), on 46% of snaps.

Against the rest of his career

2026 so far (4 games)2025–2025 (14 games)
Catches per game0.80.2
Receiving yards per game10.21.8
Target share5.3%0.9%

Tai Felton 2025 stats

In 2025 Tai Felton had 3 catches for 25 yards over 14 games, on 12% of snaps.

Season by season

Tai Felton: snap share and target share by season02040608010020252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Tai Felton: targets and catches per game by season0.00.51.01.52.020252026TargetsCatchesSeason
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Tai Felton: yards per game by season05101.8202510.22026
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
Tai Felton: touchdowns per game by season00.250.50.7510.0020250.002026
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.

2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Minnesota Vikings roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

Related players

The rest of the Minnesota Vikings receiver room, by target share.

Ranked next to him at WR for week 7.

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 7