Sun Oct 4, vs MIA: Jordan Addison caught 4 of 6 targets for 52 yards on 96% of snaps.
Stats through week 4; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 4 games this season Jordan Addison is averaging 2.8 receptions and 41 receiving yards on 91% of snaps, against 3.0 receptions and 44 receiving yards over 14 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 10.3 PPR points, WR31 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
10.3
WR31 this week
Receptions
2.7
0.3 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
58
Anytime TD
26%
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Jordan Addison snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.7 projected
26 wk4
MIA
96%
18.2%
6
4
52
1
-1
0
3.8 +0.2
26 wk3
TB
98%
36.0%
9
5
90
0
0
1
2.7 +2.3
26 wk2
CHI
88%
26.3%
5
2
21
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
GB
83%
8.7%
2
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
GB
93%
10.0%
3
1
8
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
DET
78%
7.1%
1
0
0
1
65
1
—
25 wk16
NYG
67%
13.0%
3
2
26
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
DAL
64%
8.3%
2
2
66
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
WAS
67%
30.4%
7
4
62
0
0
0
—
25 wk13
SEA
92%
34.5%
10
5
36
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
7 of 16
44%
5+ receptions
3 of 16
19%
7+ receptions
1 of 16
6%
50+ receiving yards
4 of 16
25%
75+ receiving yards
2 of 16
12%
100+ receiving yards
2 of 16
12%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 16
25%
Jordan Addison 2026 stats
Through 4 games of 2026, Jordan Addison has 11 catches for 163 receiving yards (2.8 catches and 40.8 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 91% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (4 games)
2023–2025 (47 games)
Catches per game
2.8
3.8
Receiving yards per game
40.8
51.6
Target share
22.3%
19.0%
Jordan Addison 2025 stats
In 2025 Jordan Addison had 42 catches for 610 yards over 14 games, with 4 touchdowns, on 85% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016