Thu Oct 15, vs SEA: Jaylen Waddle caught 4 of 7 targets for 24 yards on 65% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Jaylen Waddle is averaging 3.7 receptions and 38 receiving yards on 68% of snaps, against 4.0 receptions and 57 receiving yards over 16 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 10.2 PPR points, WR32 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
10.2
WR32 this week
Receptions
3.7
0.3 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
51
Anytime TD
27%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Jaylen Waddle snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.7 projected
26 wk6
SEA
65%
29.2%
7
4
24
0
0
0
3.4 +0.6
26 wk5
LAC
65%
22.7%
5
2
19
1
9
0
3.7 -1.7
26 wk4
SF
68%
15.8%
6
5
35
0
0
1
3.5 +1.5
26 wk3
LA
73%
22.6%
7
2
10
1
14
0
3.7 -1.7
26 wk2
JAX
61%
34.5%
10
8
138
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
KC
75%
11.1%
3
1
2
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
TB
25%
4.5%
1
0
0
1
7
0
—
25 wk16
CIN
71%
31.0%
9
5
72
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
PIT
84%
15.4%
4
2
26
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
NYJ
78%
33.3%
7
5
50
1
21
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
14 of 18
78%
5+ receptions
10 of 18
56%
7+ receptions
1 of 18
6%
50+ receiving yards
10 of 18
56%
75+ receiving yards
6 of 18
33%
100+ receiving yards
2 of 18
11%
Scored a touchdown
6 of 18
33%
Jaylen Waddle 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Jaylen Waddle has 22 catches for 228 receiving yards (3.7 catches and 38.0 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 68% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2021–2025 (80 games)
Catches per game
3.7
4.7
Receiving yards per game
38.0
63.9
Target share
22.6%
21.6%
Jaylen Waddle 2025 stats
In 2025 Jaylen Waddle had 64 catches for 910 yards over 16 games, with 6 touchdowns, on 78% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016