Thu Oct 15, vs SEA: Lil'Jordan Humphrey played 28% of snaps without a touch.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 3 games this season Lil'Jordan Humphrey is averaging 0.3 receptions and 3 receiving yards on 19% of snaps, against 1.3 receptions and 16 receiving yards over 12 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 1.9 PPR points, WR124 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
1.9
WR124 this week
Receptions
0.4
1.0 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
10
Anytime TD
9%
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.4 projected
26 wk6
SEA
28%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0.2 -0.2
26 wk5
LAC
23%
9.1%
2
1
8
0
0.7 +0.3
26 wk2
JAX
5%
3.4%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk21
NE
74%
11.1%
3
1
5
0
—
25 wk20
BUF
67%
11.9%
5
2
33
1
—
25 wk18
LAC
27%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
KC
60%
13.5%
5
2
23
0
—
25 wk16
JAX
20%
4.3%
2
1
9
0
—
25 wk15
GB
68%
12.5%
4
3
42
1
—
25 wk14
LV
38%
8.3%
3
3
27
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 13 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
3 of 13
23%
5+ receptions
0 of 13
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 13
0%
50+ receiving yards
1 of 13
8%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 13
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 13
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 13
15%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey 2026 stats
Through 3 games of 2026, Lil'Jordan Humphrey has 1 catches for 8 receiving yards (0.3 catches and 2.7 yards a game), on 19% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (3 games)
2019–2025 (72 games)
Catches per game
0.3
1.1
Receiving yards per game
2.7
13.6
Target share
4.2%
5.8%
Lil'Jordan Humphrey 2025 stats
In 2025 Lil'Jordan Humphrey had 16 catches for 194 yards over 12 games, with 2 touchdowns, on 52% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016