Thu Oct 15, vs SEA: Marvin Mims Jr. caught 2 of 4 targets for 13 yards on 27% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 4 games this season Marvin Mims Jr. is averaging 1.2 receptions and 7 receiving yards on 23% of snaps, against 2.9 receptions and 28 receiving yards over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 4.8 PPR points, WR75 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
4.8
WR75 this week
Receptions
1.7
1.1 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
23
Anytime TD
15%
He is the third-down option, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.05 receptions.
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Marvin Mims Jr. snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.7 projected
26 wk6
SEA
27%
16.7%
4
2
13
0
0
0
1.6 +0.4
26 wk5
LAC
19%
9.1%
2
2
6
1
3
0
1.3 +0.7
26 wk4
SF
27%
7.9%
3
1
10
0
0
0
1.6 -0.6
26 wk1
KC
18%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk21
NE
66%
22.2%
6
4
62
0
0
0
—
25 wk20
BUF
65%
19.0%
8
8
93
0
0
1
—
25 wk18
LAC
32%
13.0%
3
2
10
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
KC
47%
10.8%
4
3
10
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
JAX
32%
6.5%
3
3
26
1
3
0
—
25 wk15
GB
31%
18.8%
6
4
29
1
8
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
8 of 18
44%
5+ receptions
3 of 18
17%
7+ receptions
1 of 18
6%
50+ receiving yards
4 of 18
22%
75+ receiving yards
2 of 18
11%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
Scored a touchdown
3 of 18
17%
Marvin Mims Jr. 2026 stats
Through 4 games of 2026, Marvin Mims Jr. has 5 catches for 29 receiving yards (1.2 catches and 7.2 yards a game), on 23% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (4 games)
2023–2025 (51 games)
Catches per game
1.2
2.2
Receiving yards per game
7.2
26.8
Target share
8.4%
9.5%
Marvin Mims Jr. 2025 stats
In 2025 Marvin Mims Jr. had 49 catches for 477 yards over 17 games, with 3 touchdowns, on 40% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016