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NFL Positions: How Each One Actually Behaves

The arguments people have about fantasy football have different answers at different positions, and most of them have been measured here against a control. One page each.

Running backsThe largest measured effect in this project is a running back one, and the most quoted running-back statistic is one of the least predictive numbers in the data.Tight endsA tight-end room holds two or three players, so vacated work has nowhere else to go — and the matchup everyone cites is the least reproducible claim in the data.Wide receiversWhen a lead receiver sits, the room's total gain is predictable and the split between the remaining receivers is not. Every candidate predictor correlates near zero.QuarterbacksA starting-quarterback change is one of the most discussed events in fantasy and, measured against a control, it moves a receiver's receptions by 0.013.
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Every figure carries its sample size and, where one applies, its test statistic — including the findings that went against what we expected. Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead.

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