Thu Oct 15, vs SEA: Courtland Sutton caught 2 of 3 targets for 19 yards on 77% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Courtland Sutton is averaging 2.2 receptions and 20 receiving yards on 78% of snaps, against 4.3 receptions and 57 receiving yards over 19 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 8.3 PPR points, WR46 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
8.3
WR46 this week
Receptions
2.6
1.6 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
44
Anytime TD
22%
He is used near the goal line, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.07 receptions.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Courtland Sutton snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.6 projected
26 wk6
SEA
77%
12.5%
3
2
19
0
2.6 -0.6
26 wk5
LAC
81%
13.6%
3
2
18
1
3.7 -1.7
26 wk4
SF
73%
15.8%
6
1
4
0
4.0 -3.0
26 wk3
LA
87%
22.6%
7
3
46
0
3.8 -0.8
26 wk2
JAX
73%
13.8%
4
3
25
0
—
26 wk1
KC
76%
18.5%
5
2
11
0
—
25 wk21
NE
93%
18.5%
5
3
17
1
—
25 wk20
BUF
85%
21.4%
9
4
53
0
—
25 wk18
LAC
78%
8.7%
2
1
5
0
—
25 wk17
KC
82%
27.0%
10
4
40
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
16 of 21
76%
5+ receptions
9 of 21
43%
7+ receptions
2 of 21
10%
50+ receiving yards
12 of 21
57%
75+ receiving yards
6 of 21
29%
100+ receiving yards
2 of 21
10%
Scored a touchdown
8 of 21
38%
Courtland Sutton 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Courtland Sutton has 13 catches for 123 receiving yards (2.2 catches and 20.5 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 78% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2018–2025 (118 games)
Catches per game
2.2
3.9
Receiving yards per game
20.5
55.1
Target share
16.1%
21.5%
Courtland Sutton 2025 stats
In 2025 Courtland Sutton had 81 catches for 1,087 yards over 19 games, with 8 touchdowns, on 86% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
9 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016