6′0″, 215 lb · age 30 · South Carolina · 2019 draft, round 2
Week 5 stats
Sun Oct 11, at SEA: Deebo Samuel Sr. caught 2 of 3 targets for 21 yards on 43% of snaps.
Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Deebo Samuel Sr. is averaging 3.2 receptions and 41 receiving yards on 58% of snaps, against 4.5 receptions and 45 receiving yards over 16 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 8.4 PPR points, WR45 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
8.4
WR45 this week
Receptions
2.7
1.8 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
40
Anytime TD
31%
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.
His snap share is down, but he is on the injury report, so the drop is not read as a smaller role.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Deebo Samuel Sr. snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.7 projected
26 wk5
SEA
43%
11.1%
3
2
21
2
4
0
3.6 -1.6
26 wk4
DEN
67%
20.7%
6
5
26
3
44
1
3.7 +1.3
26 wk3
ARI
76%
0.0%
0
0
80
2
14
1
4.1 -4.1
26 wk2
MIA
60%
19.0%
4
3
31
1
4
0
—
26 wk1
LA
42%
20.6%
7
6
48
1
12
1
—
25 wk18
PHI
71%
26.3%
5
2
20
2
1
0
—
25 wk17
DAL
82%
19.0%
4
2
68
2
25
0
—
25 wk16
PHI
81%
20.0%
4
3
35
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
NYG
61%
31.2%
5
3
43
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
MIN
52%
30.0%
6
4
27
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
15 of 18
83%
5+ receptions
8 of 18
44%
7+ receptions
4 of 18
22%
50+ receiving yards
6 of 18
33%
75+ receiving yards
2 of 18
11%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
Scored a touchdown
7 of 18
39%
Deebo Samuel Sr. 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Deebo Samuel Sr. has 16 catches for 206 receiving yards (3.2 catches and 41.2 yards a game), with 3 touchdowns, on 58% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2019–2025 (109 games)
Catches per game
3.2
4.1
Receiving yards per game
41.2
56.5
Target share
14.3%
22.4%
Deebo Samuel Sr. 2025 stats
In 2025 Deebo Samuel Sr. had 72 catches for 727 yards over 16 games, with 6 touchdowns, on 72% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016