5′9″, 171 lb · age 25 · North Carolina · 2023 draft, round 3
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, vs TEN: Josh Downs caught 4 of 8 targets for 40 yards on 86% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Josh Downs is averaging 4.0 receptions and 48 receiving yards on 81% of snaps, against 3.6 receptions and 35 receiving yards over 16 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 9.0 PPR points, WR42 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
9.0
WR42 this week
Receptions
4.2
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
39
Anytime TD
18%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Josh Downs snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.2 projected
26 wk6
TEN
86%
21.1%
8
4
40
1
7
0
4.1 -0.1
26 wk5
PIT
85%
14.0%
6
3
47
0
0
0
3.9 -0.9
26 wk4
WAS
77%
13.8%
4
3
16
0
0
0
4.1 -1.1
26 wk3
HOU
68%
31.4%
11
5
77
0
0
0
4.1 +0.9
26 wk2
KC
83%
30.0%
9
7
72
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
BAL
89%
13.8%
4
2
37
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
HOU
63%
12.1%
4
4
61
1
-5
0
—
25 wk17
JAX
61%
17.2%
5
2
34
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
SF
78%
25.0%
9
5
65
1
3
0
—
25 wk15
SEA
72%
19.2%
5
3
13
0
0
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
11 of 18
61%
5+ receptions
6 of 18
33%
7+ receptions
1 of 18
6%
50+ receiving yards
6 of 18
33%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 18
22%
Josh Downs 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Josh Downs has 24 catches for 289 receiving yards (4.0 catches and 48.2 yards a game), on 81% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2023–2025 (47 games)
Catches per game
4.0
4.2
Receiving yards per game
48.2
45.5
Target share
20.7%
20.0%
Josh Downs 2025 stats
In 2025 Josh Downs had 58 catches for 566 yards over 16 games, with 4 touchdowns, on 59% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016