Sun Oct 18, vs LAC: Xavier Worthy caught 7 of 7 targets for 73 yards on 84% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Xavier Worthy is averaging 4.2 receptions and 41 receiving yards on 81% of snaps, against 3.0 receptions and 38 receiving yards over 14 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 9.2 PPR points, WR39 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
9.2
WR39 this week
Receptions
3.8
0.8 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
40
Anytime TD
24%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Xavier Worthy snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.8 projected
26 wk6
LAC
84%
24.1%
7
7
73
0
0
0
3.4 +3.6
26 wk4
LV
75%
25.9%
7
4
70
0
0
0
3.7 +0.3
26 wk3
MIA
83%
8.7%
2
2
20
0
0
0
3.8 -1.8
26 wk2
IND
86%
16.3%
7
5
25
0
0
1
—
26 wk1
DEN
77%
24.0%
6
3
18
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
DEN
79%
15.0%
3
0
0
1
1
0
—
25 wk16
TEN
84%
13.6%
3
2
41
1
0
0
—
25 wk15
LAC
67%
13.3%
4
2
35
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
HOU
77%
13.8%
4
3
55
0
0
0
—
25 wk13
DAL
88%
18.8%
6
4
61
2
13
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
11 of 16
69%
5+ receptions
4 of 16
25%
7+ receptions
0 of 16
0%
50+ receiving yards
5 of 16
31%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 16
6%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 16
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 16
12%
Xavier Worthy 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Xavier Worthy has 21 catches for 206 receiving yards (4.2 catches and 41.2 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 81% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2024–2025 (34 games)
Catches per game
4.2
3.5
Receiving yards per game
41.2
42.9
Target share
19.8%
17.3%
Xavier Worthy 2025 stats
In 2025 Xavier Worthy had 42 catches for 532 yards over 14 games, with 1 touchdown, on 71% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016