6′2″, 215 lb · age 30 · Penn · 2018 draft, round 5
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, vs LAC: Justin Watson played 2% of snaps without a touch.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Justin Watson has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 1 game of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
0.7
WR156 this week
Receptions
0.7
0.3 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
1
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Justin Watson snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.7 projected
26 wk6
LAC
2%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
IND
19%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk2
TB
41%
8.7%
2
1
3
0
—
25 wk1
LA
56%
7.4%
2
2
27
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
Justin Watson 2026 stats
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (1 game)
2018–2025 (99 games)
Catches per game
0.0
1.0
Receiving yards per game
0.0
14.9
Target share
0.0%
5.1%
Justin Watson 2025 stats
In 2025 Justin Watson had 3 catches for 30 yards over 3 games, on 39% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
8 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016