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Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

Indianapolis Colts · Wide receiverWR depth

Over 15 games last season Nick Westbrook-Ikhine averaged 0.7 receptions and 6 yards on 44% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.2 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions
0.2
0.6 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
0
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.

What a realistic week looks like

86%011%12345678910111213Receptions
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

GameOppSnap shareTarget shareTgtRecRec ydsTDWe said
26 wk4———————0.2 projected
26 wk3HOU1%0.0%0000—
25 wk18NE11%0.0%0000—
25 wk15PIT36%3.8%1000—
25 wk14NYJ34%0.0%0000—
25 wk13NO22%0.0%0000—
25 wk11WAS27%0.0%0000—
25 wk10BUF47%4.8%1170—
25 wk9BAL67%10.8%42220—
25 wk8ATL65%11.1%31180—
25 wk7CLE76%13.3%43160—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

OutcomeGames it happenedHow often
3+ receptions1 of 157%
5+ receptions0 of 150%
7+ receptions0 of 150%
50+ receiving yards0 of 150%
75+ receiving yards0 of 150%
100+ receiving yards0 of 150%
Scored a touchdown0 of 150%

Career by season

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine: snap share and target share by season0204060801002020202120222023202420252026Snap shareTarget shareSeasonshare of the team
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
SeasonGamesCatches/gmRec yds/gmTargets/gmTDs, seasonSnap shareTarget share
2026 so far10.00.00.001%0.0%
2025150.75.91.3044%4.5%
2024171.929.23.5970%11.8%
2023142.026.43.2370%11.3%
2022171.523.42.9375%10.4%
2021172.228.03.4457%10.9%
2020150.33.30.7019%2.4%

7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

The whole Indianapolis Colts roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about wide receivers

Are players better coming off a bye week?They are slightly worseDo defenses shut down the other team’s best receiver?Barely

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4