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Indianapolis Colts
This is a committee. Keenan Allen holds 22.6% of the targets, and the 15 tracked pass-catchers project for 25 receptions and 255 receiving yards in week 7.
What this staff chooses
The Indianapolis Colts call it close to neutral: pass rate over expectation -0.1%, 15th of 32, on 64 plays a game (3rd). Raw pass rate is 57.9%, but that follows the scoreboard — a trailing team throws. PROE subtracts the league rate for the same down, distance and score, so what is left is the CHOICE.
Pass rate over expectation is the most repeatable offensive trait we measure: split the season into odd and even weeks and a team agrees with itself at 0.84. Most things a defense does sit near 0.32.
| This season | League rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expectation | -0.1% | 15th |
| Plays per game | 64.0 | 3rd |
| Points per game | 24.0 | 14th |
The line, and the front it faces
The offensive line has allowed pressure on 22.8% of dropbacks (17th) and opened 2.30 yards before contact a carry (21st). The defense pressures the quarterback on 19.2% of opposing dropbacks (31st).
| This season | League rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Pressure allowed, per dropback | 22.8% | 17th |
| Yards before contact, per carry | 2.30 | 21st |
| Pressure generated, per dropback | 19.2% | 31st |
What this defense concedes
Of the passes thrown at the Indianapolis Colts, 58% go to receivers, 25% to tight ends and 17% to backs. Opponents average 8.13 yards a target (29th).
Read this half with more caution than the half above. How a defense DISTRIBUTES the targets it faces repeats moderately — 0.34 for backs, 0.23 for receivers, 0.09 for tight ends. How many YARDS it allows a tight end per target repeats at 0.02, which is indistinguishable from chance. "Weak against tight ends" is the least reproducible claim in this dataset and one of the most repeated.
Season by season
This staff is calling it much as it has: pass rate over expectation -0.1% this season against -0.9% across the previous 10 seasons.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen WR1 | 61% | 22.6% | 4.6 | 40 | who benefits |
| Josh Downs WR2 | 81% | 20.7% | 4.2 | 39 | who benefits |
| Ashton Dulin WR3 | 27% | 12.1% | 1.1 | 26 | — |
| Alec Pierce WR depth | 42% | 12.0% | 0.0 | — | — |
| Laquon Treadwell WR depth | 74% | 11.5% | 2.4 | 26 | — |
| Deion Burks WR depth | 14% | 3.4% | 0.8 | 14 | — |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine WR depth | 9% | 0.8% | 0.1 | 7 | — |
| Anthony Gould WR depth | 1% | 0.5% | 0.2 | 0 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren TE1 | 91% | 21.5% | 5.2 | 42 | who benefits |
| Will Mallory TE2 | 52% | 15.8% | 1.9 | 27 | who benefits |
| Pharaoh Brown TE3 | 5% | 2.6% | 0.1 | 1 | — |
| Mo Alie-Cox TE depth | 38% | 1.7% | 1.1 | 6 | — |
| Andrew Ogletree TE depth | 27% | 1.5% | 0.2 | 2 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor RB1 | 82% | 11.6% | 2.3 | 21 | who benefits |
| Seth McGowan RB2 | 18% | 2.1% | 0.6 | 4 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 24 carries and 101 rushing yards, with Jonathan Taylor taking 79% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor RB | 18.6 | 76 | 4.07 | 53% |
| Seth McGowan RB | 4.9 | 25 | 5.20 | 5% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.