6′6″, 256 lb · age 24 · Penn State · 2025 draft, round 1
Week 5 stats
Sun Oct 11, at PIT: Tyler Warren caught 7 of 9 targets for 83 yards, 1 touchdown on 94% of snaps.
Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Tyler Warren is averaging 6.0 receptions and 43 receiving yards on 91% of snaps, against 4.5 receptions and 48 receiving yards over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 10.9 PPR points, TE7 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
10.9
TE7 this week
Receptions
5.2
0.8 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
42
Anytime TD
33%
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 9 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Tyler Warren snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
5.2 projected
26 wk5
PIT
94%
20.9%
9
7
83
1
1
1
5.0 +2.0
26 wk4
WAS
85%
17.2%
5
5
41
0
0
0
4.8 +0.2
26 wk3
HOU
94%
28.6%
10
9
55
1
2
0
4.4 +4.6
26 wk2
KC
89%
23.3%
7
6
21
1
3
1
—
26 wk1
BAL
93%
17.2%
5
3
13
0
0
1
—
25 wk18
HOU
82%
24.2%
8
5
26
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
JAX
86%
17.2%
5
5
43
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
SF
88%
25.0%
9
3
30
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
SEA
82%
23.1%
6
3
19
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
JAX
93%
16.7%
6
2
15
1
2
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
18 of 19
95%
5+ receptions
9 of 19
47%
7+ receptions
2 of 19
11%
50+ receiving yards
7 of 19
37%
75+ receiving yards
3 of 19
16%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
Scored a touchdown
7 of 19
37%
Tyler Warren 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Tyler Warren has 30 catches for 213 receiving yards (6.0 catches and 42.6 yards a game), with 3 touchdowns, on 91% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2025–2025 (17 games)
Catches per game
6.0
4.5
Receiving yards per game
42.6
48.1
Target share
21.5%
21.5%
Tyler Warren 2025 stats
In 2025 Tyler Warren had 76 catches for 817 yards over 17 games, with 5 touchdowns, on 84% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016