6′6″, 253 lb · age 33 · Western Kentucky · 2016 draft, round 4
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, vs ARI: Tyler Higbee caught 4 of 4 targets for 22 yards on 83% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Tyler Higbee is averaging 4.0 receptions and 41 receiving yards on 55% of snaps, against 2.2 receptions and 28 receiving yards over 13 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 11.1 PPR points, TE6 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
11.1
TE6 this week
Receptions
4.0
1.8 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
44
Anytime TD
34%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Tyler Higbee snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.0 projected
26 wk6
ARI
83%
12.5%
4
4
22
0
3.2 +0.8
26 wk5
BUF
67%
11.1%
6
5
83
0
3.0 +2.0
26 wk4
PHI
65%
12.0%
6
5
67
0
3.2 +1.8
26 wk3
DEN
71%
22.4%
11
8
62
1
1.6 +6.4
26 wk2
NYG
26%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
SF
20%
7.4%
2
2
12
0
—
25 wk21
SEA
20%
2.9%
1
1
12
0
—
25 wk20
CHI
10%
5.0%
2
1
27
0
—
25 wk19
CAR
51%
7.1%
3
2
45
0
—
25 wk18
ARI
64%
16.2%
6
5
91
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
6 of 15
40%
5+ receptions
1 of 15
7%
7+ receptions
0 of 15
0%
50+ receiving yards
1 of 15
7%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 15
7%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 15
0%
Scored a touchdown
3 of 15
20%
Tyler Higbee 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Tyler Higbee has 24 catches for 246 receiving yards (4.0 catches and 41.0 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 55% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2016–2025 (153 games)
Catches per game
4.0
2.8
Receiving yards per game
41.0
28.3
Target share
10.9%
11.8%
Tyler Higbee 2025 stats
In 2025 Tyler Higbee had 29 catches for 365 yards over 13 games, with 3 touchdowns, on 49% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016