Sun Oct 11, at ARI: Sam LaPorta caught 5 of 5 targets for 88 yards, 1 touchdown on 89% of snaps.
Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Sam LaPorta is averaging 5.4 receptions and 63 receiving yards on 88% of snaps, against 4.4 receptions and 54 receiving yards over 9 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 11.6 PPR points, TE5 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
11.6
TE5 this week
Receptions
4.6
0.2 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
52
Anytime TD
39%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Sam LaPorta snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.6 projected
26 wk5
ARI
89%
17.2%
5
5
88
1
5.0 +0.0
26 wk4
CAR
79%
25.5%
13
8
84
1
4.5 +3.5
26 wk3
NYJ
92%
12.9%
4
3
44
0
4.7 -1.7
26 wk2
BUF
98%
18.4%
7
6
52
1
—
26 wk1
NO
81%
20.5%
8
5
48
0
—
25 wk10
WAS
76%
15.6%
5
5
53
0
—
25 wk9
MIN
100%
22.2%
8
6
97
1
—
25 wk7
TB
97%
10.7%
3
3
15
0
—
25 wk6
KC
96%
22.2%
6
5
55
1
—
25 wk5
CIN
94%
26.1%
6
5
92
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 11 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
11 of 11
100%
5+ receptions
7 of 11
64%
7+ receptions
0 of 11
0%
50+ receiving yards
6 of 11
55%
75+ receiving yards
3 of 11
27%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 11
0%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 11
36%
Sam LaPorta 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Sam LaPorta has 27 catches for 316 receiving yards (5.4 catches and 63.2 yards a game), with 3 touchdowns, on 88% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2023–2025 (46 games)
Catches per game
5.4
4.6
Receiving yards per game
63.2
50.7
Target share
18.9%
19.5%
Sam LaPorta 2025 stats
In 2025 Sam LaPorta had 40 catches for 489 yards over 9 games, with 3 touchdowns, on 91% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016