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Detroit Lions
This is a top-heavy committee. Amon-Ra St. Brown holds 31.1% of the targets, and the 12 tracked pass-catchers project for 24 receptions and 300 receiving yards in week 7.
What this staff chooses
The Detroit Lions pass more than the situation calls for: pass rate over expectation +3.0%, 8th of 32, on 62 plays a game (8th). Raw pass rate is 61.3%, but that follows the scoreboard — a trailing team throws. PROE subtracts the league rate for the same down, distance and score, so what is left is the CHOICE.
Pass rate over expectation is the most repeatable offensive trait we measure: split the season into odd and even weeks and a team agrees with itself at 0.84. Most things a defense does sit near 0.32.
| This season | League rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expectation | +3.0% | 8th |
| Plays per game | 61.6 | 8th |
| Points per game | 32.8 | 2nd |
The line, and the front it faces
The offensive line has allowed pressure on 19.3% of dropbacks (4th) and opened 3.08 yards before contact a carry (4th). The defense pressures the quarterback on 26.9% of opposing dropbacks (8th).
| This season | League rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Pressure allowed, per dropback | 19.3% | 4th |
| Yards before contact, per carry | 3.08 | 4th |
| Pressure generated, per dropback | 26.9% | 8th |
What this defense concedes
Of the passes thrown at the Detroit Lions, 55% go to receivers, 32% to tight ends and 13% to backs. Opponents average 8.01 yards a target (26th).
Read this half with more caution than the half above. How a defense DISTRIBUTES the targets it faces repeats moderately — 0.34 for backs, 0.23 for receivers, 0.09 for tight ends. How many YARDS it allows a tight end per target repeats at 0.02, which is indistinguishable from chance. "Weak against tight ends" is the least reproducible claim in this dataset and one of the most repeated.
Season by season
This staff is calling it much as it has: pass rate over expectation +3.0% this season against +1.2% across the previous 10 seasons.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amon-Ra St. Brown WR1 | 88% | 31.1% | 6.2 | 83 | who benefits |
| Jameson Williams WR2 | 90% | 15.2% | 3.8 | 57 | who benefits |
| Isaac TeSlaa WR3 | 62% | 9.6% | 1.8 | 36 | — |
| Tay Martin WR depth | 4% | 2.8% | 0.1 | 1 | — |
| Tom Kennedy WR depth | 1% | 2.5% | 0.0 | — | — |
| Jackson Meeks WR depth | 8% | 1.6% | 0.4 | 7 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam LaPorta TE1 | 88% | 18.9% | 4.6 | 52 | who benefits |
| Brock Wright TE2 | 47% | 3.3% | 1.6 | 14 | who benefits |
| Tyler Conklin TE3 | 10% | 2.8% | 0.2 | 0 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs RB1 | 77% | 18.8% | 4.3 | 44 | who benefits |
| Sione Vaki RB2 | 26% | 2.5% | 0.6 | 6 | — |
| Jacob Saylors RB3 | 3% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 0 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 21 carries and 103 rushing yards, with Jahmyr Gibbs taking 80% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jahmyr Gibbs RB | 16.6 | 84 | 5.04 | 71% |
| Sione Vaki RB | 4.1 | 19 | 4.73 | 13% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.