Sun Oct 11, at ARI: Isaac TeSlaa was targeted 2 times without a catch on 39% of snaps.
Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Isaac TeSlaa is averaging 1.8 receptions and 37 receiving yards on 62% of snaps, against 0.9 receptions and 14 receiving yards over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 6.6 PPR points, WR58 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
6.6
WR58 this week
Receptions
1.8
0.8 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
36
Anytime TD
19%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Isaac TeSlaa snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.8 projected
26 wk5
ARI
39%
6.9%
2
0
0
0
2.2 -2.2
26 wk4
CAR
82%
15.7%
8
4
95
0
1.9 +2.1
26 wk3
NYJ
48%
9.7%
3
3
66
0
1.6 +1.4
26 wk2
BUF
75%
13.2%
5
2
26
0
—
26 wk1
NO
68%
2.6%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
CHI
60%
2.8%
1
1
18
0
—
25 wk17
MIN
52%
13.8%
4
3
49
1
—
25 wk16
PIT
55%
13.5%
7
4
52
1
—
25 wk15
LA
62%
2.6%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
DAL
77%
9.7%
3
2
20
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
2 of 19
11%
5+ receptions
0 of 19
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 19
0%
50+ receiving yards
1 of 19
5%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
Scored a touchdown
6 of 19
32%
Isaac TeSlaa 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Isaac TeSlaa has 9 catches for 187 receiving yards (1.8 catches and 37.4 yards a game), on 62% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2025–2025 (17 games)
Catches per game
1.8
0.9
Receiving yards per game
37.4
14.1
Target share
9.6%
4.7%
Isaac TeSlaa 2025 stats
In 2025 Isaac TeSlaa had 16 catches for 239 yards over 17 games, with 6 touchdowns, on 40% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016