Sun Oct 11, at ARI: Amon-Ra St. Brown caught 6 of 11 targets for 69 yards on 86% of snaps.
Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Amon-Ra St. Brown is averaging 7.4 receptions and 74 receiving yards on 88% of snaps, against 6.9 receptions and 82 receiving yards over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 17.6 PPR points, WR3 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
17.6
WR3 this week
Receptions
6.2
0.7 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
83
Anytime TD
48%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 3 and 10 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Amon-Ra St. Brown snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
6.2 projected
26 wk5
ARI
86%
37.9%
11
6
69
0
7.0 -1.0
26 wk4
CAR
96%
21.6%
11
8
75
0
6.8 +1.2
26 wk3
NYJ
74%
25.8%
8
4
19
1
6.9 -2.9
26 wk2
BUF
95%
34.2%
13
9
142
2
—
26 wk1
NO
90%
35.9%
14
10
67
2
—
25 wk18
CHI
95%
41.7%
15
11
139
0
—
25 wk17
MIN
83%
44.8%
13
8
68
0
—
25 wk16
PIT
97%
17.3%
9
4
54
0
—
25 wk15
LA
95%
47.4%
18
13
164
2
—
25 wk14
DAL
92%
29.0%
9
6
92
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
17 of 19
89%
5+ receptions
15 of 19
79%
7+ receptions
12 of 19
63%
50+ receiving yards
15 of 19
79%
75+ receiving yards
10 of 19
53%
100+ receiving yards
6 of 19
32%
Scored a touchdown
9 of 19
47%
Amon-Ra St. Brown 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Amon-Ra St. Brown has 37 catches for 372 receiving yards (7.4 catches and 74.4 yards a game), with 5 touchdowns, on 88% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2021–2025 (87 games)
Catches per game
7.4
6.6
Receiving yards per game
74.4
76.6
Target share
31.1%
27.5%
Amon-Ra St. Brown 2025 stats
In 2025 Amon-Ra St. Brown had 117 catches for 1,401 yards over 17 games, with 11 touchdowns, on 85% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016