6′2″, 216 lb · age 25 · BYU; Washington · 2023 draft, round 5
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, vs ARI: Puka Nacua caught 6 of 7 targets for 80 yards on 90% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 4 games this season Puka Nacua is averaging 9.2 receptions and 104 receiving yards on 84% of snaps, against 8.1 receptions and 108 receiving yards over 19 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 20.0 PPR points, WR1 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
20.0
WR1 this week
Receptions
8.6
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
93
Anytime TD
53%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 4 and 12 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Puka Nacua snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
8.6 projected
26 wk6
ARI
90%
21.9%
7
6
80
0
0
0
8.4 -2.4
26 wk5
BUF
85%
44.4%
24
17
138
2
9
1
6.8 +10.2
26 wk4
PHI
90%
24.0%
12
9
125
1
2
1
6.2 +2.8
26 wk1
SF
70%
33.3%
9
5
74
0
0
0
—
25 wk21
SEA
79%
41.2%
14
9
165
1
4
1
—
25 wk20
CHI
90%
25.0%
10
5
56
2
6
0
—
25 wk19
CAR
79%
42.9%
18
10
111
3
14
2
—
25 wk18
ARI
69%
29.7%
11
10
76
2
24
1
—
25 wk17
ATL
74%
27.8%
10
5
47
0
0
1
—
25 wk16
SEA
78%
33.3%
16
12
225
0
0
2
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
19 of 20
95%
5+ receptions
19 of 20
95%
7+ receptions
14 of 20
70%
50+ receiving yards
18 of 20
90%
75+ receiving yards
14 of 20
70%
100+ receiving yards
8 of 20
40%
Scored a touchdown
11 of 20
55%
Puka Nacua 2026 stats
Through 4 games of 2026, Puka Nacua has 37 catches for 417 receiving yards (9.2 catches and 104.2 yards a game), with 2 touchdowns, on 84% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (4 games)
2023–2025 (50 games)
Catches per game
9.2
7.1
Receiving yards per game
104.2
96.9
Target share
30.9%
30.6%
Puka Nacua 2025 stats
In 2025 Puka Nacua had 153 catches for 2,047 yards over 19 games, with 14 touchdowns, on 71% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016