6′0″, 197 lb · age 24 · Ohio State · 2023 draft, round 1
Week 6 stats
Thu Oct 15, at DEN: Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 12 of 16 targets for 134 yards on 92% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Jaxon Smith-Njigba is averaging 8.2 receptions and 120 receiving yards on 85% of snaps, against 6.8 receptions and 100 receiving yards over 20 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 18.4 PPR points, WR2 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
18.4
WR2 this week
Receptions
7.4
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
84
Anytime TD
46%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 3 and 11 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
7.4 projected
26 wk6
DEN
92%
34.8%
16
12
134
0
0
0
6.8 +5.2
26 wk5
SF
84%
29.6%
8
5
102
1
16
1
7.2 -2.2
26 wk4
LAC
88%
30.0%
6
5
76
0
0
0
7.0 -2.0
26 wk3
WAS
87%
31.1%
14
10
128
0
0
2
6.4 +3.6
26 wk2
ARI
67%
42.3%
11
9
155
0
0
3
—
26 wk1
NE
90%
45.8%
11
8
122
0
0
1
—
25 wk22
NE
69%
27.8%
10
4
27
0
0
0
—
25 wk21
LA
82%
35.3%
12
10
153
0
0
1
—
25 wk20
SF
72%
25.0%
4
3
19
0
0
1
—
25 wk18
SF
83%
30.8%
8
6
84
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 22 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
21 of 22
95%
5+ receptions
18 of 22
82%
7+ receptions
15 of 22
68%
50+ receiving yards
19 of 22
86%
75+ receiving yards
18 of 22
82%
100+ receiving yards
12 of 22
55%
Scored a touchdown
12 of 22
55%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Jaxon Smith-Njigba has 49 catches for 717 receiving yards (8.2 catches and 119.5 yards a game), with 7 touchdowns, on 85% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2023–2025 (54 games)
Catches per game
8.2
5.5
Receiving yards per game
119.5
69.4
Target share
35.6%
26.2%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2025 stats
In 2025 Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 136 catches for 1,992 yards over 20 games, with 12 touchdowns, on 77% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016