Thu Oct 15, at DEN: Tory Horton caught 1 of 5 targets for 13 yards on 46% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Tory Horton is averaging 1.0 receptions and 13 receiving yards on 27% of snaps, against 1.6 receptions and 20 receiving yards over 8 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 3.3 PPR points, WR97 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
3.3
WR97 this week
Receptions
1.1
0.5 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
14
Anytime TD
13%
He is the third-down option, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.05 receptions.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Tory Horton snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.1 projected
26 wk6
DEN
46%
10.9%
5
1
13
0
0.8 +0.2
26 wk5
SF
17%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0.9 -0.9
26 wk4
LAC
17%
5.0%
1
1
6
1
1.6 -0.6
26 wk3
WAS
22%
6.7%
3
3
48
0
1.0 +2.0
26 wk2
ARI
31%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk9
WAS
73%
16.7%
4
4
48
2
—
25 wk7
HOU
39%
10.3%
3
0
0
0
—
25 wk6
JAX
45%
4.2%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk5
TB
49%
11.8%
4
3
39
1
—
25 wk4
ARI
36%
8.3%
2
1
10
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 9 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
3 of 9
33%
5+ receptions
0 of 9
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 9
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 9
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 9
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 9
0%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 9
44%
Tory Horton 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Tory Horton has 5 catches for 67 receiving yards (1.0 catches and 13.4 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 27% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2025–2025 (8 games)
Catches per game
1.0
1.6
Receiving yards per game
13.4
20.1
Target share
4.5%
10.6%
Tory Horton 2025 stats
In 2025 Tory Horton had 13 catches for 161 yards over 8 games, with 5 touchdowns, on 48% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016