Mon Oct 12, vs BUF: Tutu Atwell caught 1 of 1 target for 4 yards on 39% of snaps.
Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 3 games this season Tutu Atwell is averaging 1.0 receptions and 10 receiving yards on 27% of snaps, against 0.5 receptions and 17 receiving yards over 11 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 3.3 PPR points, WR98 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
3.3
WR98 this week
Receptions
1.2
0.7 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
17
Anytime TD
11%
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Tutu Atwell snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.2 projected
26 wk5
BUF
39%
1.9%
1
1
4
0
0.4 +0.6
26 wk4
PHI
23%
2.0%
1
1
8
0
0.2 +0.8
26 wk2
NYG
18%
6.7%
2
1
19
0
—
25 wk19
CAR
20%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
ARI
13%
8.1%
3
1
19
0
—
25 wk17
ATL
20%
2.8%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
SEA
9%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
DET
6%
5.3%
2
1
9
0
—
25 wk7
JAX
14%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk5
SF
66%
8.7%
4
2
72
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 12 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 12
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 12
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 12
0%
50+ receiving yards
2 of 12
17%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 12
8%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 12
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 12
8%
Tutu Atwell 2026 stats
Through 3 games of 2026, Tutu Atwell has 3 catches for 31 receiving yards (1.0 catches and 10.3 yards a game), on 27% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (3 games)
2021–2025 (68 games)
Catches per game
1.0
1.6
Receiving yards per game
10.3
23.4
Target share
3.5%
8.7%
Tutu Atwell 2025 stats
In 2025 Tutu Atwell had 6 catches for 192 yards over 11 games, with 1 touchdown, on 27% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016