Sun Oct 18, vs DAL: Bo Melton played 24% of snaps without a touch.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Bo Melton is averaging 0.7 receptions and 5 receiving yards on 25% of snaps, against 0.3 receptions and 8 receiving yards over 13 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 3.2 PPR points, WR99 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
3.2
WR99 this week
Receptions
1.0
0.7 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
15
Anytime TD
10%
He is the third-down option, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.07 receptions.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Bo Melton snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.0 projected
26 wk6
DAL
24%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.9 -0.9
26 wk5
CHI
49%
12.9%
4
3
20
0
0
0
0.6 +2.4
26 wk4
TB
18%
3.3%
1
0
0
0
0
0
0.6 -0.6
26 wk3
ATL
32%
2.0%
1
0
0
0
0
0
0.6 -0.6
26 wk2
NYJ
15%
3.4%
1
0
0
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
MIN
12%
2.5%
1
1
10
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
MIN
—
10.0%
1
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
BAL
—
12.0%
3
1
34
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
CHI
—
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
DEN
—
2.8%
1
0
0
1
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 15
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 15
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 15
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 15
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 15
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 15
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 15
7%
Bo Melton 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Bo Melton has 4 catches for 30 receiving yards (0.7 catches and 5.0 yards a game), on 25% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2023–2025 (38 games)
Catches per game
0.7
0.8
Receiving yards per game
5.0
12.1
Target share
4.0%
5.4%
Bo Melton 2025 stats
In 2025 Bo Melton had 4 catches for 107 yards over 13 games, with 1 touchdown, on 0% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016