6′4″, 215 lb · age 27 · North Dakota State · 2022 draft, round 2
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, vs DAL: Christian Watson caught 3 of 8 targets for 64 yards on 88% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Christian Watson is averaging 4.8 receptions and 90 receiving yards on 80% of snaps, against 3.5 receptions and 59 receiving yards over 11 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 13.0 PPR points, WR17 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
13.0
WR17 this week
Receptions
4.4
1.0 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
60
Anytime TD
38%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Christian Watson snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.4 projected
26 wk6
DAL
88%
20.0%
8
3
64
0
4.4 -1.4
26 wk5
CHI
80%
25.8%
8
6
143
2
4.0 +2.0
26 wk4
TB
68%
10.0%
3
3
47
0
4.6 -1.6
26 wk3
ATL
80%
19.6%
10
7
96
1
4.0 +3.0
26 wk2
NYJ
90%
37.9%
11
4
41
1
—
26 wk1
MIN
76%
20.0%
8
6
147
2
—
25 wk19
CHI
80%
18.4%
7
3
36
1
—
25 wk17
BAL
62%
24.0%
6
5
113
1
—
25 wk16
CHI
62%
25.0%
6
2
17
0
—
25 wk15
DEN
41%
13.9%
5
3
29
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 13 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
10 of 13
77%
5+ receptions
3 of 13
23%
7+ receptions
0 of 13
0%
50+ receiving yards
6 of 13
46%
75+ receiving yards
5 of 13
38%
100+ receiving yards
2 of 13
15%
Scored a touchdown
7 of 13
54%
Christian Watson 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Christian Watson has 29 catches for 538 receiving yards (4.8 catches and 89.7 yards a game), with 6 touchdowns, on 80% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2022–2025 (51 games)
Catches per game
4.8
2.7
Receiving yards per game
89.7
45.5
Target share
22.2%
16.3%
Christian Watson 2025 stats
In 2025 Christian Watson had 38 catches for 647 yards over 11 games, with 7 touchdowns, on 69% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016