Sun Oct 18, at JAX: Nico Collins caught 3 of 5 targets for 74 yards on 73% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 4 games this season Nico Collins is averaging 5.5 receptions and 81 receiving yards on 71% of snaps, against 4.6 receptions and 71 receiving yards over 16 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 13.1 PPR points, WR16 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
13.1
WR16 this week
Receptions
4.5
0.2 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
68
Anytime TD
32%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Nico Collins snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.5 projected
26 wk6
JAX
73%
15.6%
5
3
74
1
5
0
4.8 -1.8
26 wk5
TEN
71%
21.2%
7
5
56
0
0
0
4.5 +0.5
26 wk4
DAL
69%
30.8%
8
7
118
0
0
2
4.5 +2.5
26 wk1
BUF
72%
27.0%
10
7
75
1
7
1
—
25 wk19
PIT
56%
21.9%
7
3
21
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
LAC
68%
15.4%
4
3
57
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
LV
80%
26.5%
9
4
59
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
ARI
73%
15.4%
4
3
85
0
0
2
—
25 wk14
KC
81%
29.6%
8
4
121
0
0
0
—
25 wk13
IND
75%
31.2%
10
5
98
1
7
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
17 of 17
100%
5+ receptions
6 of 17
35%
7+ receptions
5 of 17
29%
50+ receiving yards
14 of 17
82%
75+ receiving yards
9 of 17
53%
100+ receiving yards
3 of 17
18%
Scored a touchdown
7 of 17
41%
Nico Collins 2026 stats
Through 4 games of 2026, Nico Collins has 22 catches for 323 receiving yards (5.5 catches and 80.8 yards a game), with 3 touchdowns, on 71% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (4 games)
2021–2025 (71 games)
Catches per game
5.5
4.4
Receiving yards per game
80.8
66.7
Target share
23.7%
21.3%
Nico Collins 2025 stats
In 2025 Nico Collins had 74 catches for 1,138 yards over 16 games, with 7 touchdowns, on 76% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016