6′3″, 220 lb · age 24 · Ohio State · 2024 draft, round 1
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, at JAX: Marvin Harrison Jr. caught 3 of 4 targets for 34 yards on 19% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Marvin Harrison Jr. is averaging 1.6 receptions and 24 receiving yards on 63% of snaps, against 3.4 receptions and 51 receiving yards over 12 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 5.5 PPR points, WR66 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
5.5
WR66 this week
Receptions
2.3
1.1 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
32
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Marvin Harrison Jr. snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.3 projected
26 wk6
JAX
19%
12.5%
4
3
34
0
1.9 +1.1
26 wk4
NYG
65%
11.4%
4
1
12
1
2.5 -1.5
26 wk3
SF
77%
10.0%
5
3
40
0
2.2 +0.8
26 wk2
SEA
74%
3.8%
1
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
LAC
79%
8.1%
3
1
33
0
—
25 wk17
CIN
33%
2.9%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
ATL
51%
10.3%
3
1
14
0
—
25 wk13
TB
61%
18.9%
7
6
69
0
—
25 wk10
SEA
91%
27.3%
12
3
33
1
—
25 wk9
DAL
72%
34.5%
10
7
96
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 14 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
7 of 14
50%
5+ receptions
4 of 14
29%
7+ receptions
1 of 14
7%
50+ receiving yards
6 of 14
43%
75+ receiving yards
2 of 14
14%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 14
0%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 14
29%
Marvin Harrison Jr. 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Marvin Harrison Jr. has 8 catches for 119 receiving yards (1.6 catches and 23.8 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 63% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2024–2025 (29 games)
Catches per game
1.6
3.6
Receiving yards per game
23.8
51.5
Target share
9.2%
20.7%
Marvin Harrison Jr. 2025 stats
In 2025 Marvin Harrison Jr. had 41 catches for 608 yards over 12 games, with 4 touchdowns, on 71% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016