6′3″, 210 lb · age 26 · Iowa State · 2023 draft, round 6
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, at JAX: Xavier Hutchinson caught 2 of 3 targets for 10 yards on 54% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Xavier Hutchinson is averaging 3.0 receptions and 40 receiving yards on 53% of snaps, against 2.2 receptions and 26 receiving yards over 19 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 8.0 PPR points, WR50 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
8.0
WR50 this week
Receptions
2.8
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
38
Anytime TD
24%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Xavier Hutchinson snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.8 projected
26 wk6
JAX
54%
9.4%
3
2
10
0
0
0
2.9 -0.9
26 wk5
TEN
41%
15.2%
5
4
65
0
0
0
2.4 +1.6
26 wk4
DAL
31%
19.2%
5
3
46
0
0
0
2.8 +0.2
26 wk3
IND
54%
24.0%
6
3
51
2
4
0
3.2 -0.2
26 wk2
CIN
81%
18.0%
9
3
37
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
BUF
56%
16.2%
6
3
32
0
0
0
—
25 wk20
NE
84%
28.9%
13
4
44
0
0
0
—
25 wk19
PIT
66%
12.5%
4
2
21
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
IND
79%
32.1%
9
5
84
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
LAC
48%
11.5%
3
2
21
1
8
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
9 of 21
43%
5+ receptions
2 of 21
10%
7+ receptions
0 of 21
0%
50+ receiving yards
2 of 21
10%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 21
5%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 21
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 21
10%
Xavier Hutchinson 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Xavier Hutchinson has 18 catches for 241 receiving yards (3.0 catches and 40.2 yards a game), on 53% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2023–2025 (54 games)
Catches per game
3.0
1.3
Receiving yards per game
40.2
14.7
Target share
17.0%
7.5%
Xavier Hutchinson 2025 stats
In 2025 Xavier Hutchinson had 41 catches for 493 yards over 19 games, with 3 touchdowns, on 59% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016