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Houston Texans
This is a committee. Nico Collins holds 23.7% of the targets, and the 17 tracked pass-catchers project for 26 receptions and 336 receiving yards in week 7.
What this staff chooses
The Houston Texans pass more than the situation calls for: pass rate over expectation +4.2%, 7th of 32, on 61 plays a game (11th). Raw pass rate is 61.8%, but that follows the scoreboard — a trailing team throws. PROE subtracts the league rate for the same down, distance and score, so what is left is the CHOICE.
Pass rate over expectation is the most repeatable offensive trait we measure: split the season into odd and even weeks and a team agrees with itself at 0.84. Most things a defense does sit near 0.32.
| This season | League rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expectation | +4.2% | 7th |
| Plays per game | 60.8 | 11th |
| Points per game | 24.0 | 14th |
The line, and the front it faces
The offensive line has allowed pressure on 19.6% of dropbacks (5th) and opened 2.24 yards before contact a carry (23rd). The defense pressures the quarterback on 25.7% of opposing dropbacks (13th).
| This season | League rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Pressure allowed, per dropback | 19.6% | 5th |
| Yards before contact, per carry | 2.24 | 23rd |
| Pressure generated, per dropback | 25.7% | 13th |
What this defense concedes
Of the passes thrown at the Houston Texans, 65% go to receivers, 19% to tight ends and 17% to backs. Opponents average 7.11 yards a target (15th).
Read this half with more caution than the half above. How a defense DISTRIBUTES the targets it faces repeats moderately — 0.34 for backs, 0.23 for receivers, 0.09 for tight ends. How many YARDS it allows a tight end per target repeats at 0.02, which is indistinguishable from chance. "Weak against tight ends" is the least reproducible claim in this dataset and one of the most repeated.
Season by season
This staff is passing more than it has: pass rate over expectation +4.2% this season against -1.2% across the previous 10 seasons.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins WR1 | 71% | 23.7% | 4.5 | 68 | who benefits |
| Xavier Hutchinson WR2 | 53% | 17.0% | 2.8 | 38 | who benefits |
| Kayshon Boutte WR depth | 58% | 10.6% | 2.2 | 36 | — |
| Jaylin Noel WR depth | 45% | 10.4% | 2.4 | 35 | — |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. WR3 | 63% | 9.2% | 2.3 | 32 | — |
| Jared Wayne WR depth | 41% | 6.5% | 0.2 | 19 | — |
| Lewis Bond WR depth | 16% | 2.0% | 0.2 | 7 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalton Schultz TE1 | 57% | 16.7% | 4.4 | 41 | who benefits |
| Foster Moreau TE2 | 44% | 7.4% | 1.7 | 15 | who benefits |
| Brevin Jordan TE3 | 11% | 2.3% | 0.7 | 4 | — |
| Cade Stover TE depth | 25% | 1.1% | 0.3 | 3 | — |
| Marlin Klein TE depth | 10% | 0.9% | 0.2 | 0 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks RB1 | 57% | 7.3% | 2.6 | 17 | who benefits |
| David Montgomery RB2 | 47% | 4.0% | 0.8 | 12 | who benefits |
| Jawhar Jordan RB3 | 22% | 3.1% | 0.8 | 9 | — |
| Dare Ogunbowale RB depth | 2% | 2.5% | 0.2 | 0 | — |
| British Brooks RB depth | 8% | 0.0% | 0.0 | — | — |
The ground game
Projected for 25 carries and 112 rushing yards, with Woody Marks taking 42% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks RB | 10.6 | 42 | 3.94 | 35% |
| David Montgomery RB | 8.8 | 35 | 3.93 | 12% |
| Jawhar Jordan RB | 6.0 | 36 | 5.90 | — |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.