5′11″, 230 lb · age 29 · Iowa State · 2019 draft, round 3
Week 5 stats
Sun Oct 11, at TEN: David Montgomery ran 5 times for 11 yards on 14% of snaps.
Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season David Montgomery is averaging 10.4 carries for 28 rushing yards and 1.4 catches on 47% of snaps, against 9.3 carries for 42 rushing yards and 1.4 catches over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 6.3 PPR points, RB43 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
6.3
RB43 this week
Rush attempts
8.8
Rushing yards
35
Receptions
0.8
0.6 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
12
Anytime TD
12%
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.
His snap share is down, but he is on the injury report, so the drop is not read as a smaller role.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
David Montgomery snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.8 projected
26 wk5
TEN
14%
0.0%
0
0
0
5
11
0
1.8 -1.8
26 wk4
DAL
56%
0.0%
0
0
19
10
24
0
1.9 -1.9
26 wk3
IND
63%
8.0%
2
2
15
11
33
0
2.1 -0.1
26 wk2
CIN
52%
4.0%
2
2
14
6
10
0
—
26 wk1
BUF
49%
8.1%
3
3
19
20
60
3
—
25 wk18
CHI
42%
2.8%
1
1
13
8
42
0
—
25 wk17
MIN
34%
6.9%
2
2
15
10
25
0
—
25 wk16
PIT
18%
0.0%
0
0
0
4
14
0
—
25 wk15
LA
28%
2.6%
1
0
0
7
32
1
—
25 wk14
DAL
31%
3.2%
1
1
13
6
60
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
3 of 19
16%
5+ receptions
0 of 19
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 19
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
Scored a touchdown
8 of 19
42%
David Montgomery 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, David Montgomery has 52 carries for 138 rushing yards (27.6 a game) and 7 catches for 67 receiving yards (1.4 catches and 13.4 yards a game), with 3 touchdowns, on 47% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2019–2025 (110 games)
Catches per game
1.4
2.2
Receiving yards per game
13.4
17.6
Target share
4.0%
8.7%
David Montgomery 2025 stats
In 2025 David Montgomery had 158 carries for 716 yards and 24 catches for 192 yards over 17 games, with 8 touchdowns, on 37% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016